Senegal Energy Outlook

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand.

Senegal’s economy could grow six-times larger in the AC while limiting growth in energy demand to three-times its current level by utilising new gas resources and boosting the use of renewables in power.

In the AC, gas meets a growing share of energy demand while traditional use of biomass starts to decline in rural areas.

Electricity demand increases sharply in both scenarios, while the power mix changes, with gas playing an increasingly important role and investments in wind and other renewables bringing more diversification.

Plans to phase out heavy fuel oil in the AC hinge on successful implementation of new gas-to-power plans.

Senegal’s stock of two/three-wheelers is set to grow strongly in both scenarios and its electrification would help to free oil for other productive uses.

In the AC, cement production could more than double to 2040, although the availability of fuels, including domestic gas, will be critical for this and for wider future industrial development.

Thanks to successful access policies, almost 70% of the population is connected today; with adoption of a comprehensive integrated plan full access is achieved by 2025.

The grid represents the least-cost option for the majority of the population currently without electricity access today, with decentralised solutions reaching the most remote populations.

LPG is used for cooking by almost 30% of the population today, one of the highest shares in sub-Saharan Africa. It is expected to remain the main clean cooking fuel in 2030.

In the AC, LPG is the least-cost option in both rural and urban areas for more than 70% of the population currently still lacking access.

Senegal is not a fossil fuel producer today, but major gas discoveries are expected to change the picture and to lead to gas production of 9.5 bcm in 2040 in the STEPS.

The greater availability of gas helps displace oil use in power generation in domestic markets while also bringing considerable export revenues.

Energy investment needs amount to $33 billion through to 2040 in the STEPS, mainly to unlock the potential for gas, expand power networks and increase electricity access.

The AC sees this level of investment increase by a third, with more emphasis on gas and renewable generation.