Country report
Nigeria Energy Outlook
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand.
Stated Policies |
Africa Case |
CAAGR 2018-40 |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 |
2018 |
2030 |
2040 |
2030 |
2040 |
STEPS |
AC |
|
GDP ($2018 billion, PPP) |
29 |
73 |
132 |
238 |
195 |
455 |
5.5% |
8.7% |
Population (million) |
47 |
84 |
120 |
156 |
120 |
156 |
2.8% |
2.8% |
|
7% |
9% |
16% |
21% |
100% |
100% |
4.1% |
11.7% |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
100% |
100% |
2.0% |
17.1% |
CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) |
1 |
3 |
10 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
8.7% |
9.2% |
Policy | Key targets and measures |
---|---|
|
|
Industrial development target |
|
In the AC, Democratic Republic of the Congo supports an economy six-times larger than today’s with only 35% more energy by diversifying its energy mix away from one that is 95% dependent on bioenergy.
The power sector sees more growth than any other sector; a big increase in the use of hydropower leads to its share of the overall energy mix increasing to 23% in the AC.
Almost all electricity generation today comes from hydropower and the Inga project has the potential to provide much more. If network constraints are addressed, Democratic Republic of the Congo could become an electricity exporter.
In the AC, Phase 5 of the Inga project enables Democratic Republic of the Congo to meet an eleven-fold increase in electricity demand; this increase is the result of achieving full access to electricity and of the growing electrification of productive uses.
Oil use in industry increases significantly in the AC with manufacturing and mining chiefly responsible for this growth.
Electricity consumption is low today but is set to increase significantly in the AC as household incomes rise, access to electricity improves and mining activities increase.
Less than 10% of the population has access to electricity today, making Democratic Republic of the Congo the country with the largest number of people without access in Africa after Nigeria.
Mini-grids account for more than half of all new connections in the AC.
Given the availability of fuelwood in rural areas and the affordability of charcoal in urban areas, almost all people cook with traditional stoves in 2030 in the STEPS.
In the AC, improved cookstoves are the preferred option to provide clean cooking access in both urban and rural areas. In parallel, kilns for making charcoal are improved to increase their efficiency.
Fossil fuel consumption is at a low level, but growing, and almost reliant on imports in both scenarios. Further industrial development depends on a large increase in imports.
Democratic Republic of the Congo is a major producer of minerals. It accounts for almost two-thirds of global cobalt production; this gives it a crucial role in global clean energy transitions.
The AC requires a quadrupling of investment compared with the STEPS, with emphasis on renewables, power networks and access to electricity and clean cooking.
Investment opportunities in the AC are likely to be realised only if sound structures to regulate the sector and manage revenues from mineral production are in place.
Cobalt mining activities will drive an increase in electricity demand. Meeting this through renewable hydropower would help to develop low-carbon electricity for Democratic Republic of the Congo and a low-carbon value chain for the global electric vehicle fleet.
Given the country’s dispersed population centres, decentralised solutions offer the lowest cost way to overcome grid limitations and provide electricity access to the huge share of the population currently without it.
Increased regional co-operation could help realise the potential of Inga, which has the potential to provide large quantities of reliable low-carbon electricity to Democratic Republic of the Congo and its neighbours.
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019
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