Uzbekistan’s electricity generation was 63.5 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019 due to an increase in generation capacity. Overall generation has grown steadily, with an increase of 27% since 2008, most of which was supplied by natural gas. In 2019, natural gas accounted for 85% of overall generation, followed by hydro (10.2%) and coal (3.7%).

Total installed capacity was 12.9 GW in 2019, mainly consisting of 11 thermal power plants (TPPs), including co-generation plants (11.0 GW, or 84.7% of total capacity), and 42 hydropower plants (HPPs) (1.85 GW, or 14.3%).

Looking at renewables by technology, almost all renewable energy in Uzbekistan is generated by hydropower (6.5 TWh, or 10.2% of overall generation in 2019), while wind and solar power are negligible to date.

Uzbekistan’s power system is part of the Central Asia Power Grid with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Interconnections of 220 kilovolts (kV) and 500 kV transmission lines exist with the 4 countries respectively as do 220 kV transmission lines with Afghanistan. The net volume of electricity trade remained relatively constant between 2010 and 2017, while the total trade electricity was on a downward trend mainly due to the withdrawal of individual countries from the Central Asia Power Grid, having decreased to 5.4 TWh in both directions. In August 2020, the government of Uzbekistan signed an agreement with the government of Afghanistan on ten-year electricity export, including the construction of a 500 kV interconnection line, which could help increase Uzbekistan's net electricity export.

Uzbekistan has considerable renewable energy potential, a substantial amount of which lies in solar energy. The solar energy gross potential totals 2 134 x 10³ PJ, while technical potential is estimated at 7 411 PJ, which is equivalent to almost four times the country’s current primary energy consumption.

Uzbekistan benefits from high solar irradiation. Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measures the density of solar resources available per horizontal surface area, including both direct and diffuse radiations.2 The GHI serves as an indicator for assessing the potential of solar photovoltaics (PV), which converts both radiations into electricity. Uzbekistan’s GHI is estimated at 4.52 kWh per square metre (m²) per day in the median value (with a range of 4.0‑5.0 kWh/m²/day), which is higher than several European countries with good solar conditions, such as Spain (4.64 kWh/m²/day) or Italy (4.07 kWh/m²/day).

Direct normal irradiance (DNI) is the relevant metric to consider the possibility of using concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar thermal technologies, which require direct irradiation. The DNI in Uzbekistan is 4.44 kWh/m²/day in the median value (ranging from 3.03 kWh/m²/day to 5.27 kWh/m²/day). In comparison, Spain and the United States, the major markets for CSP globally, show a slightly higher median DNI (5.34 kWh/m²/day and 4.76 kWh/m²/day, respectively), but these are on par with values observed in the southern regions of Uzbekistan.

As shown in the figure below, solar thermal is used in a number of countries with levels of solar insolation similar to those in Uzbekistan. While the majority of applications globally correspond to domestic solar thermal water heaters, solar thermal heat can also be used for space heating in buildings and greenhouses, space cooling (when collectors are paired with an absorption or adsorption chiller), low- to medium-temperature industrial processes (e.g. drying, sterilisation), and wastewater treatment. There are significant opportunities for the integration of solar thermal heat use in district heating networks as well. 

Other solar heating solutions are also emerging, such as solar PV-to-heat (PV2heat), which consists of PV modules directly (and solely) connected to an electric resistance water heater using DC power without inverters. The simplicity of installation, reliability and cost-competitiveness of PV2heat systems offer perspectives for deployment in various regions of the world, including, potentially, in Uzbekistan.

Electric heat pumps, while not necessarily related to solar energy, are becoming more popular in many markets thanks to lower installation costs relative to potential savings on energy spending and higher energy performance. In 2020, electric heat pumps only met up to 7% of heating needs in buildings globally, but they could easily supply more than 90% of global space and water heating at a lower level of CO₂ emissions than condensing gas boiler technology (IEA, 2021b). 

To ensure energy security and promote renewable energy use, the government of Uzbekistan has adopted a wide range of strategies and laws related to energy.

The Strategy of Action for the Five Priority Development Areas of Uzbekistan in 2017‑2021, adopted in February 2017, provides key directions for economic development. In terms of energy, the strategy indicates the need for reducing the energy intensity and resource intensity of the economy, the widespread introduction of energy-saving technologies in production, and expanding the use of renewable energy sources.

The government expects the share of renewable generation in the power mix to increase to at least 20% by 2025 (compared to 9.4% in 2018), as indicated in the Strategy for Innovative Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2019-2021, adopted in September 2018.

Building reliable electricity networks is essential for the deployment of more renewables in the power sector. In this regard, the Strategy for the Development of Electric Networks in the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2025 was formulated in July 2019. It provides an overall plan for the construction of new and the modernisation of existing transmission and distribution lines and substations up to 2025.

In order to implement comprehensive measures to deepen structural reforms, modernise and diversify key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, and balance the socio‑economic development of its territories, the government adopted the Strategy for the Transition of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the Green Economy for the Period 2019-2030 in October 2019. It encompasses a wide range of objectives within several priority areas, including the energy sector. As regards renewable energy technologies, it makes reference to:

• further developing renewables by raising their share in the power mix to more than 25% by 2030 (compared to 10.2% in 2019)
• modernising the infrastructure of industrial enterprises and applying clean and environmentally safe technologies and industrial processes more widely
• using solar collectors for water heating
• increasing the automation of technological processes while reducing electric energy consumption for transmission and distribution
• improving the main power network configurations and modernising them to increase power system stability
• equipping power consumption systems with smart meters.

In response to the Strategy for 2019-2030, the government developed the Concept Note for ensuring electricity supply in Uzbekistan in 2020-2030 in May 2020. This concept note defines medium- and long-term objectives and directions for the development of the power sector. It identifies six main objectives to improve electricity supply: 1) satisfying the country’s power demand; 2) improving the nation’s energy efficiency; 3) increasing the energy efficiency of power generation and transmission; 4) reducing the damage of power facilities; 5) developing and expanding the use of renewables and their system integration; and 6) developing an efficient electricity market. With a view to meeting the growing power demand while expanding renewable generation capacity, the following targets have been set:

• increase power capacity from the 12.9 GW in 2019 to 29.2 GW by 2030 and electricity generation from 63.6 TWh in 2019 to 120.8 TWh by 2030
• increase the capacity of renewable energy generation to 5 GW for solar power and 3 GW for wind by 2030 (compared with no large-scale solar PV plants operational in 2019).

The Uzbek government is currently planning to set a renewable capacity target of 4 GW for solar power and 4 GW for wind by 2026 (MoE, 2022). The country is also considering increasing the 2030 renewable capacity targets from 5 GW to 7 GW for solar PV and from 3 GW to 5 GW for wind (MoE, 2021a).

The Law on the Use of Renewable Energy Sources, adopted in May 2019, defines opportunities and incentives for individuals and manufacturers of renewable energy installations, including exemption of property and land tax. At the same time, the Law on Public‑Private Partnership (PPP) was enacted to allow/encourage private sector participation in public sector infrastructure projects, including those in the power sector. Multiple PPP projects are currently underway.

The Decree on Accelerated Measures to Improve Energy Efficiency of Economic and Social Sectors, the Introduction of Energy-Saving Technologies and the Development of Renewable Energy Sources was approved in August 2019. This decree defines the share of renewable electricity in the power mix to reach at least 25% by 2030. It also specifies subsidies to individuals and companies that install energy equipment, including solar PV facilities.

The Law on the Rational Use of Energy, amended in April 2020, stipulates the role of the Ministry of Energy in implementing a unified state policy on rational energy use applicable to all economic sectors and social facilities. In other words, it positions the ministry as a pillar for implementing the country’s energy policy, including renewables.

The Programme of Measures for Further Development of the Hydropower Sector for 2017‑2021, adopted in May 2017, addresses projects for the construction of new and the modernisation of existing HPPs and the provision of tax incentives for imported equipment required for these projects.

In its Nationally Determined Contributions, ratified in November 2018, Uzbekistan committed to decreasing specific GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 10% by 2030 from 2010 levels. As regards renewable energy, to improve energy efficiency in various sectors, the Nationally Determined Contribution proposes the development and broader use of renewable energy sources, such as constructing large solar PV power and biogas plants and scaling up wind power generation. Moreover, during the recent United Nations’ Climate Change Conference COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, the government announced its intention to reduce GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030. To achieve this ambitious target, the government needs to find a way to increase the total generation capacity of solar and wind to 8 GW by 2026, which means the current target needs to be achieved four years ahead of the schedule.

In close co-operation with international financial institutions, the government of Uzbekistan has been also developing several master plans to secure energy supply while achieving a carbon‑neutral power sector in the long term. The Power Sector Masterplan to 2030, developed with the technical support of the Asian Development Bank (September 2019), identifies ways to diversify the power mix and provides plans for achieving lower cost generation and reliable transmission development.

The Roadmap to Carbon-Neutral Electricity Sector in Uzbekistan 2050 was developed with the support of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the government of Japan in January 2021. It provides insights on the policies, technologies and investments necessary to achieve a carbon-neutral power sector by 2050, and leverages advanced energy system modelling and scenario analysis tools. It also explores possible future development pathways for its power sector. The roadmap is not (yet) reflected in the government’s official targets.

With a view to ensuring sufficient power supply in the medium term, the Transmission Network Development Plan to 2030, developed with the assistance of the World Bank, was being finalised at the time of writing. The Distribution Network Development Masterplan is also under development, with the support from the Asian Development Bank.

In terms of heat, for the purpose of consistent heat supply to consumers and efficient use of energy resources, the Decree on the Program for the Development of the Heat Supply System for the period 2018-2022 was adopted in April 2017. It identifies the following as priorities for further development of the heat system in Uzbekistan: 1) introducing new energy sources, including renewables; 2) developing a decentralised heat supply system for apartments and other social facilities; 3) modernising and reconstructing outdated inefficient heating boilers; and 4) introducing an automated accounting system for the consumption and production of energy sources.

The table below summarises renewable generation and solar capacity targets.