Uzbekistan has great renewable energy potential, especially for solar energy. With a view to ensuring energy security while optimising renewable energy resources, the government has implemented a wide range of measures to promote the integration of renewable energy into the energy system and private sector participation in the energy sector, including in large‑scale solar energy projects.

Uzbekistan has made a positive effort toward that end, including by setting clear targets and reforming the energy sector and has been progressing toward achieving the solar power capacity target of 4 GW by 2026 and 5 GW by 2030. Nevertheless, a more comprehensive set of policies and support mechanisms will be required to reach Uzbekistan’s maximum capacity of solar energy and further increase solar energy toward 2030. The government should consider bundling the range of actions needed to ensure the use of all types of solar energy resources.

This section presents a solar energy roadmap for Uzbekistan by 2030. It is based on current measures being implemented in Uzbekistan to break down the possible barriers to solar energy deployment discussed in the previous section. It aims to facilitate the government’s deliberation of its solar energy strategy and focuses on:

• maximising the benefits of solar energy in the energy system
• policy and regulatory frameworks enabling further solar energy deployment
• increasing power system flexibility to integrate the increasing amount of solar generation.

Large-scale solar PV projects have been subject to competitive bidding processes in Uzbekistan since 2019 and an awarded project can sign a long-term contract with NEGU at a fixed tariff, as noted above. The government of Uzbekistan also aims to develop small- and medium-scale solar projects. The President stresses the need for encouraging citizens and enterprises to develop renewable energy sources for their own demand (MoE, 2021b).

Looking at small-scale projects, in order to increase solar PV generation while promoting self-consumption by individuals and businesses, the government approved a targeted programme for the installation of 150 000 rooftop solar PV with a capacity of 2‑3 kW and the installation of solar water heaters with a capacity of about 200 litres to cover 2-2.5% of households by 2025. Moreover, the government plans to develop off-grid solar PV in remote areas and regions known for ecotourism. The government will also promote medium-scale plants by which enterprises and industrial parks can cover their own power demand.

Exploiting the potential of solar energy applications for both electricity and heat in Uzbekistan and encouraging investment in solar projects regardless of size and technology requires setting clear policy targets and complementing them with attractive incentive mechanisms, e.g. that foster self-consumption while avoiding unintended negative system integration impacts, such as real-time self-consumption schemes at a value-based price fixed by the regulator. Moreover, in certain areas with low population density and good solar insolation, an off-grid solar PV system with batteries and solar thermal, possibly in complement of other local low-carbon energy sources, can offer an interesting alternative to new developments or the refurbishment/upgrade of transmission lines.

As shown by the experience in other countries, it will be important for the government to put monitoring processes in place and to rapidly adjust incentives, as appropriate and if needed. This is important to: 1) ensure that small-scale projects for self-consumption are economically attractive to foster investment; and/or 2) avoid unintended over‑remuneration and negative system integration impacts.

A floating solar PV system is a set of solar panels built on a framed foundation that floats on a body of water, mostly on water reservoirs, irrigation ponds and industrial basins. The system is particularly suitable for countries/regions where land availability is limited, and has the following advantages:

• existing electricity infrastructure including transmission lines can be used if solar PV plants are built on existing reservoirs of HPPs, contributing to reducing additional grid construction and lowering grid connection costs
• solar panels can be cooled by water beneath them, which leads to higher generation efficiency
• variable solar electricity benefits from the local flexibility provided by dispatchable, highly flexible hydropower, thus limiting impacts on the power system.

There are currently 25 reservoirs in Uzbekistan, with a total water surface of 1 500 km², 4 of which are hydropower reservoirs totalling 890 km² (CAWater, 2021). For comparison, the area of the hydropower reservoirs are more than 15 times the size of the world’s largest solar park in India, which has an installed capacity of 2.25 GW. In this regard, the potential of floating solar PV on the hydropower reservoirs is a realistic opportunity to further increase solar PV capacity in Uzbekistan.

PV2heat systems are becoming increasingly popular in several regions of the world, especially for domestic hot water. These systems consist of PV modules directly and solely connected to an electrical element that heats the water with DC power, without the need for inverters. Some systems also usually include an AC element connected to the electricity grid to heat the water when the sun is not shining (IEA SHC TCP, 2021a). PV2heat systems benefit from a simple installation, only requiring wiring from the panels to the water tank instead of insulated pipes, as is the case with traditional solar water heaters. They can also be integrated into existing water tanks. In comparison with traditional solar thermal, PV2heat systems can be particularly relevant in areas with lower insolation and colder temperatures. One downside of the simplicity of this installation is that it is also at higher risk of theft in some areas.

Although PV2heat generally requires a larger area for PV panels than solar thermal collectors for water heaters, declining costs of PV over the past years make this technology competitive. By December 2020, approximately 11 700 PV2heat systems with an estimated total PV capacity of 9.9 MWp were installed in South Africa. This emerging technology could have significant potential to contribute to sustainable hot water preparation in the residential sector in Uzbekistan.

As discussed above, district heating networks in Uzbekistan represent about one‑seventh of total national heat consumption. Natural gas accounted for 95% of district heat supplied in 2019, the remainder mostly came from coal. The buildings sector is responsible for over 80% of total district heat consumption, half of which occurs in the commercial and public sector, where it represents about one-third of total heat supplies.

By the end of 2020, 262 large-scale solar district heating systems (> 350 kilowatts thermal (kW_th); 500 m²) with an installed capacity of 1.410 megawatts thermal (MW_th) (2 million m²) were in operation worldwide. Denmark was in the lead followed by the People’s Republic of China (IEA SHC TCP, 2021b). Uzbekistan’s district heat infrastructure offers excellent perspectives for the integration of solar thermal into district heat supplies. It will be necessary to take the characteristics of existing district networks (e.g. efficiency, operating temperature) into account to assess the potential for district solar systems and to plan future developments.

Electric heat pumps are becoming a more attractive option due to their lower installation costs and higher energy performance. Enhancing electric heat pumps with solar PV deployment simultaneously could help accelerate a higher renewable energy ratio and lower CO₂ emissions. Subsidies have proven effective in several countries to offset the upfront cost of heat pumps and initiate market dynamics that accelerate their uptake in newly constructed buildings (IEA, 2021b).

Electric heat pumps are out of the scope of this roadmap, but considering that heat accounts for almost two-thirds of total final energy consumption in Uzbekistan, the potential of facilitating electric heat pumps in parallel with solar PV development could be worth considering.

• Explore the techno-economic potential of solar energy applications for both electricity and heat, including solar thermal in buildings, industry and district heat systems.
• Ensure there is transparent information on electricity markets and infrastructure, including on generation facilities and transmission/distribution lines, in order to foster the development of solar installations in places where they maximise value to the whole power system.
• Encourage investment in small- and medium-scale solar projects by setting clear policy targets with attractive incentive mechanisms, and monitor economic attractiveness as well as unintended system integration impacts and make relevant adjustments, if needed. 
• Explore the relevance of off-grid solar PV, solar thermal and solar PV2heat applications in remote areas.
• Assess the potential of floating solar PV on existing hydropower reservoirs.
• Assess the options to integrate solar thermal energy into district heating networks, taking advantage of existing district heating infrastructure.
• Consider the possibility of facilitating electric heat pumps.

As described above, new entrants to the power sector, including independent power producers, are allowed to connect to the energy system in line with the Regulation for Connecting Businesses that Produce Electricity, Including from Renewable Energy Sources, to the Unified Electric Power System. However, the detailed procedure for the grid connection is thus far unclear.

To encourage private investment in the renewable energy sector and exploit the potential of solar energy applications in Uzbekistan, when developing the electricity markets and regulation, it will be essential to ensure non-discriminatory access to the power grid regardless of entity and generation capacity through a transparent procedure and fair grid connection cost. Clearer rules on permitting for project installation and grid construction should be also considered.

The government of Uzbekistan, in co-operation with international financial institutions, has announced tenders for large-scale solar projects amounting to 2 050 MW, 1 300 MW of which had been awarded at competitive prices as of December 2021.

Substantial progress has been made toward achieving the solar power capacity target of 5 GW by 2030. To continue encouraging private investment in solar energy for both electricity and heat as well as to aim for further solar energy development in 2030, transparent and long-term plans for solar energy deployment covering small- to large-scale projects should be integrated into the government’s solar energy strategy. The solar energy deployment plan needs to go hand-in-hand with long-term grid expansion planning, which needs to be periodically updated by the government.

The government may also want to consider the option of developing a masterplan with solar parks to further attract investors and reduce overall costs. Solar parks have proven to be an effective tool in other countries, e.g. in India.

Moreover, energy planning should include the active participation of all stakeholders, including citizens, in order to best tailor energy development to the concrete energy needs of the population and avoid conflicting projects and social opposition, while considering and monitoring the social and environmental impact of the development.

Over the last decade, solar PV capacity has significantly increased globally owing to the sharp decline in price, amounting to more than 600 GW total installations in 2019. The more solar PV is deployed globally, the more end-of-life solar panels will be disposed of in a couple of decades. Currently, the cumulative solar panel waste is much less than installed solar PV capacity, but it is estimated to reach 5.5-6 million tonnes by the 2050s (4% of installed PV panels), given an average panel lifetime of 30 years (IRENA and IEA PVPS, 2016). The management of end-of-life solar panels could be an integral part of solar PV policy in terms of recycling valuable materials and components, but also for the proper treatment of hazardous substances such as tin and lead.

Solar PV capacity in Uzbekistan is still negligible, but the government aims to rapidly increase its capacity up to 5 GW by 2030. Considering the average solar panel lifetime, the treatment of end-of-life solar panels is not a pressing issue in Uzbekistan, but it is important to incorporate appropriate policy measures into the current regulations with the possible future challenge in mind.

• Progressively phase out fossil fuel subsidies to level the playing field with renewables while protecting the most economically vulnerable consumers.
• Consider the possibility of implementing fossil fuel bans in new building constructions.
• Ensure non-discriminatory access to the power grid for all generators with a transparent procedure and fair grid connection cost.
• Formulate clearer rules on permitting for project installation and grid construction.
• Integrate transparent, participative and long-term planning for renewable development into a solar energy strategy in Uzbekistan.
• Develop long-term power grid development planning in line with renewable development.
• Consider appropriate measures to dispose of end-of-life solar panels.

Thanks to a sharp cost decline and continued policy support, electricity generation from variable renewable energy (VRE) sources has been rapidly expanding globally, having reached double-digit shares in several countries. However, VRE output fluctuates over time due to the variability of sunlight and wind availability, making it increasingly important to address power system flexibility to enable further integration of VRE into the power system. 

The IEA categorises VRE integration into six phases. In Phase 1, VRE deployment has no noticeable impact on power system operations, while the power system is able to address minor operational changes through existing system resources including conventional generators and operational practices in Phase 2. The significant integration challenges appear in Phase 3, in which power systems are required to become flexible enough to adequately respond to supply-demand fluctuations within minutes to hours. In Phase 3 through Phase 6, the following implication needs to be considered: 1) VRE determines the operating pattern of the whole power system; 2) additional investments in flexibility are required; 3) there are structural surpluses of VRE generation that lead to curtailment; and 4) the seasonal and inter-year structural imbalances in energy supply require sectoral coupling.

Looking at the status of VRE integration in Uzbekistan, the VRE share in the power mix was negligible, at 0.02% (15.6 GWh) in 2019, meaning that today VRE has almost no impact on the power system. However, Uzbekistan should achieve a renewable electricity share (including hydropower generation) of 25% by 2030 in line with the Strategy for the Transition of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the Green Economy for the Period 2019‑2030. It could reach the advanced VRE integration stage where the system operation needs to address greater fluctuation of VRE generation and facilitate additional flexibility sources.

Flexibility has been traditionally and globally supplied by thermal and hydropower generation together with other options such as pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and interconnections. This conventional rotating generation is based on synchronous machines, providing inertia to the system.

In Uzbekistan, TPPs account for a large portion of electricity assets (14.0 GW, or 88.1% in 2019) followed by HPPs (1.9 GW, or 11.9% in the same year) (IEA, 2020a), and both technologies not only ensure sufficient power supply, but also should be served as flexibility sources through optimised system operation in the medium term.

It must be kept in mind that solar PV plants themselves can provide flexibility to the power system, e.g. through tracking and oriented depending on demand requirements, and hybrid systems with storage. In this respect, the introduction of locational and time adjustments into bidding levels could be worth considering to foster solar generation where and when it maximises value to the power system.

Moreover, the government should also explore other flexibility sources such as PSH and batteries when considering further deployment of solar generation in the decade and beyond. Appropriate conditions need to be in place for the balancing market so that these sources are incentivised enough to participate in the market.

Interconnections not only enable electricity trade between neighbouring countries, they can also enlarge the area where energy balancing can be made to address mismatches in demand patterns beyond national boundaries. Interconnections remain a key enabler of system integration of VRE, providing system flexibility of about 170 GW globally in 2017 (IEA, 2018).

As previously described, Uzbekistan has interconnections with five neighbouring countries (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan), and new 500 kV interconnection lines will be constructed between Afghanistan and Tajikistan by 2025 in accordance with the Concept Note for ensuring electricity supply in Uzbekistan in 2020‑2030. Given the fact that interconnections contribute to securing power supply to these countries as well as to using each others’ thermal and hydropower assets as flexibility sources in the medium to long term, further developing interconnections and creating a single electricity market among the neighbouring countries could be key options.

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) plants globally accounted for about 150 GW in 2017 and 97% of energy storage capacity, providing short- and medium-term energy storage (IEA, 2018). There are no PSH plants in Uzbekistan today, but in April 2021 Uzbekhydroenergo and French electric company EDF announced plans to develop a PSH plant (200 MW) along with floating solar PV on its reservoir in Tashkent region (Hydropower&dams, 2021).

The government is committed to increasing HPP capacity up to 3.8 GW by 2030 (1.54 GW of new HPP development and 0.19 GW in refurbishment/upgrading of existing HPP) in the Concept Note for ensuring electricity supply in Uzbekistan in 2020-2030. Adding pumped storage options should also be considered to secure further flexibility sources in the future.

Concentrating solar power (CSP) is a technology for generating electricity from irradiation, concentrating solar rays to heat a fluid which directly or indirectly runs an electrical generator. While a solar PV system can use direct and diffuse solar radiations, CSP only uses direct irradiation and thus needs a daily minimum of sunshine to generate electricity, which limits its use to hot, dry areas with clear skies. Compared to solar PV, the predominant solar technology accounting for more than 600 GW globally in 2019, the installed CSP plant capacity is quite limited (6 GW in the same year) (IEA, 2020b), but CSP plants with built-in thermal storage is a dispatchable technology, providing power system flexibility and stability while securing a low-emission power supply.

If direct normal irradiance is high enough, CSP could be a promising option to satisfy increasing solar generation in the power mix and provide system flexibility. Uzbekistan has a lot of sunshine throughout the year, with DNI at 4.44 kWh/m²/day (median value). The south-western region including Kashkadarya and the Samarkand region especially has relatively higher DNI (about 4.9 kWh/m²/day). A detailed feasibility study on the deployment of CSP plants could be valuable. 

Demand response (DR) is another flexibility source provided by the demand side, reducing or shifting electricity use by consumers. It is a cost-effective way to reduce electricity demand during peak periods, providing an alternative to increasing electricity generation. Moreover, DR allows using excess electricity more efficiently by shifting electricity demand if the share of VRE increases in the electricity mix and its output is high during certain times of the day.

Because DR is a cost-effective and sustainable flexibility option, the potential of developing DR schemes with cost-reflective energy tariffs should be taken into account. Once its potential is positively assessed, DR should be included in power system planning and operations, but should be placed on a level playing field with supply-side flexibility sources through appropriate mechanisms (e.g. demand-side bidding in electricity markets).

• Optimise the operation of conventional power plants (TPPs and HPPs) as a system balancing option.
• Consider introducing locational and time adjustments into solar PV bidding levels with a view to fostering solar generation where and when it maximises value to the power system.
• Enhance interconnections with neighbouring countries.
• Facilitate sufficient storage development, including PSH and batteries.
• Consider the potential of CSP plants in terms of low-emission power sources and system flexibility provider.
• Develop appropriate conditions for the balancing market to incentivise diversified energy sources such as PSH and batteries to supply flexibility to the power system.
• Investigate the potential for DR schemes.