These 10 actions are designed, first and foremost, to safeguard an essential level of energy services in Ukraine through the coming months. This necessarily involves actions outside the energy sector, with effective air defence being by far the most important, alongside the provision of essential energy equipment, imported supply, and back-up capabilities. Quick responses are crucial, and Ukraine’s international partners will need to be creative and nimble to minimise delays and do what it takes to help. At the same time, it will be important to build in structural changes, wherever possible, that will increase Ukraine’s resilience over the medium term and put the country’s energy sector on a sustainable pathway towards modernisation and integration with the rest of Europe. Many of these actions are already underway or under consideration, but time is of the essence.

1. Bolster the physical and cyber security of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure. Repair and construction work needs to be done with a view towards protecting assets against further attacks, especially at crucial nodes in the system like the network substations near nuclear power plants. This includes not only fortification, concealment and defence measures against modern military technologies, but also protection against attempted cyberattacks, which have tripled since the invasion.
2. Expedite the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs. The donation, sale or lease of essential equipment – such as transformers, generators and spare parts – has been an essential component of international support to Ukraine. This is now more important than ever and needs to be facilitated by streamlined import procedures and a clear prioritisation of needs.
3. Increase and decentralise power supply. Large energy assets are more vulnerable to attack, so decentralisation brings clear security benefits. Ukraine has seen a massive influx of diesel generators to provide back-up power. Accelerating deployment of smaller-scale gas-fired combined heat and power plants, and solar PV and wind systems complemented by batteries and other storage technologies is crucial to increase the resilience of supply. A particular focus is needed on supply for hospitals, schools, water pumps and mobile networks.
4. Expand electricity transmission capacity with the European Union. Ukraine and its partners swiftly moved to synchronise Ukraine (and Moldova) with the main European electricity system after the 2022 invasion, but the current limits on transmission capacity are set by relatively conservative guidance on network risk management. An expansion of west-to-east electricity flows in support of Ukraine is possible but requires political support.
5. Engage consumers in energy saving and demand response, while continuing investments in energy efficiency. A social tariff that safeguards a certain volume of consumption at subsidised rates, after which consumers pay a higher price, would help to incentivise efficient practices and investments, supported by public information campaigns that advise on energy efficiency measures for immediate impact as well as longer-term gains. Lowering the default temperature for district heating can also provide quick savings.
6. Prepare back-up options for winter heating. Expedited delivery of smaller combined heat and power units should focus on bolstering supply in the worst-affected regions in the east. Investment in reliable back-up options should also include liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) heaters, wood and coal stoves, and associated reserves of fuel, especially for rural areas.
7. Build up natural gas storage levels. Ukraine’s storage sites play a key role in meeting winter gas demand. Ukraine and its international partners need to ensure that inventory levels are adequate ahead of the winter to ensure that the gas system can react to unexpected demand or supply shocks.
8. Strengthen firm gas import capacities from the European Union. Some of the current arrangements that guarantee the availability of capacity for gas flows to Ukraine are expiring. They need to be extended and reinforced, as necessary, to provide Ukraine with assured options for import. Operating the trans-Balkan pipeline system in reverse mode, with a more competitive tariff structure, would enhance gas supply security for Ukraine and Moldova.
9. Coordinate approaches to Ukraine and Moldova. While not subject to the same physical risks from attacks, the coming winter could also be destabilising in Moldova, including Transnistria, as gas and electricity flows and relationships move to a new footing. Energy security issues in Ukraine and Moldova are closely linked, and investments in new sources of supply, energy efficiency and reinforced interconnections with neighbouring countries bring both national and regional gains. This requires coordinated strategies that recognise the inter-related nature of risks across the region and act quickly to mitigate them.
10. Lay the groundwork for a modern, market-based, resilient and sustainable Ukrainian energy system, well integrated with the EU system. The immediate priority is to mitigate the extreme risks over the coming winter, but it will be vital to start actions that have a longer lead time – including investment in reinforced transmission corridors with western neighbours – and to integrate, wherever possible, a medium-term vision for a new Ukrainian energy system into the immediate response.