Kyrgyzstan’s high dependence on hydropower exposes it to the risk of electricity shortages during periods of water scarcity. This risk is magnified by the growing fragility of the power system, which is in urgent need of generation and network investment to improve its operational reliability and to ensure that it has sufficient capacity to meet demand over time. The challenge is further amplified by rapidly growing electricity demand, fuelled by unsustainably low regulated electricity prices, which threatens to quickly outstrip domestic production capacity. Maintaining access to reliable electricity services is likely to become increasingly problematic in these circumstances, especially during periods of water shortage.

The government of the Kyrgyz Republic recognises these challenges and has initiated a range of investment initiatives to help address them. Policy responses to date have focused on addressing the longer-term adequacy dimensions of the power system reliability and resilience challenge. However, relatively little attention has been focused on the more immediate power system security challenges facing the Kyrgyz power system. Opportunities exist to implement a range of policies that could help to strengthen power system security in the shorter term, especially during periods of water shortage when power system reliability and resilience are likely to be under greatest stress.

A comprehensive and integrated policy framework will be needed to help strengthen power system security in a timely, efficient and cost-effective manner. This roadmap seeks to address this need. Its goal is to help improve power sector reliability and resilience in Kyrgyzstan in the short term by quickly strengthening power system security, especially during periods of water scarcity.

The roadmap seeks to deliver this goal by deploying an interrelated set of internationally proven and effective policy measures over the next decade that focus on achieving three strategic priorities:

1. improving power system operation and management, especially in response to sustained hydrological events
2. broadening and deepening supply-side capability to respond to sustained hydrological events
3. developing complementary demand-side capability that can be deployed quickly and effectively during sustained hydrological events.

Measures proposed to improve the system operator’s capacity to manage significant losses of hydropower during sustained water shortages include: upgrading operating practices; improving co‑ordination and communication arrangements; and upgrading training and capacity-building programmes. These measures look to leverage process improvement and therefore have the potential to proceed relatively quickly. Upgrading the system operator’s monitoring, analysis and real-time management tools and capabilities is a key proposed measure, which offers the potential to substantially reduce power system losses and to greatly improve management of sustained hydrological events. However, implementation of this measure is likely to rely on the deployment of significant technological and capital upgrades which could prove complex, time-consuming and expensive to develop and effectively implement in practice. These practical considerations are reflected in the longer period allocated in the roadmap for undertaking these activities.

Supply-side measures represent the backbone of the roadmap, providing the primary response and main resources for managing significant losses of hydropower during sustained water shortage events. However, analysis suggests that implementation of a sufficient contingency reserve  would represent a considerable investment of capacity and financial resources. It would be unrealistic to expect this level of contingency reserve to be developed and deployed in the short term. Hence, the roadmap proposes a three-stage approach to its development.

The first stage would involve securing a working contingency reserve drawing from existing infrastructure. A potentially ideal source could be a portion of the underutilised generating capacity associated with the Bishkek Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant. This plant represents a readily available source of thermal generation that is strategically located close to major loads, with the potential to be quickly deployed as an effective source of emergency power to offset the loss of hydroelectric power for the duration of a periodic seasonal hydrological shortage. 

The second phase of the programme would seek to broaden and deepen the sources of supply secured for the contingency reserve. For instance, previously untapped sources of distributed generation could be considered, along with a limited volume of demand response from large loads. In addition, the potential to increase the contribution from the Bishkek CHP plant, or from the proposed second Bishkek CHP plant if it materialises, could be explored. The likely additional time required to undertake this phase is reflected in the time frames proposed in the roadmap. In the longer term, the third stage of the programme could seek to extend national and regional sources of supply. For instance, opportunities to broaden and deepen the provision of domestically sourced reserves could be explored, including demand response. Similarly, ongoing arrangements could be established to secure emergency operating reserves from regional power producers.

The demand-side measures proposed have the potential to improve existing rationing arrangements and to unlock a range of resources that can complement and reinforce traditional supply-side responses to address sustained power system security events. For instance, the communications strategy measure has the potential to help harness considerable voluntary power savings during a hydrological emergency event, while the contractual mechanisms measure potentially provide a practical means for securing contingency reserves from non‑traditional sources, such as distributed generators.

Similarly, energy efficiency and power consumption substitution measures have considerable potential to deliver substantial power savings in the longer term. Accordingly, it is proposed that measures be developed and implemented to incrementally harness these power savings, initially focusing on improving building energy efficiency, and the deployment of more efficient space heating and appliances.

Overall, the roadmap provides an integrated and comprehensive approach for pursuing power system security in Kyrgyzstan. It incorporates a range of practical measures focusing on the key areas of power system management, production and consumption that will determine power system reliability and resilience during a sustained water shortage event. The roadmap also recognises the interrelated nature of the power system security challenges facing Kyrgyzstan during these periods, and will support the development of a mutually reinforcing set of policies and programmes that can address these matters in a practical, timely and cost-effective manner.