The rate of global primary energy intensity improvement is defined as the percentage decrease in the ratio of global total energy supply per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). It is the indicator used to track progress on global energy efficiency.

The pace of improvement in energy efficiency slowed to 0.8 percent in 2021, down from 1.8% averaged in the decade before. This is primarily due to lockdowns and travel restrictions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and significant shifts in the global economy that coincided with the initial lockdowns. In 2022, the low improvement trend continued as a strong rebound of energy demand outpaced improvements. These improvement levels are far from the average annual improvement needed to achieve the SDG7.3 of 3.4%. However, considerable recent improvements as a result of policies and energy security measures suggests that a recovery is expected in 2023, with energy intensity improving at a rate of 1.3 percent even above historical levels.

Recently, a number of significant energy efficiency policies globally are expected to improve energy intensity, including nationally determined contributions (NDC) announced at COP28, and other measures to face the energy crisis. As a result, overall global energy intensity in the Stated Policies Scenario is expected to decrease by 2.3% per year on average from 2022 to 2030. This is faster than the average rate in the last decade 2010-2020 (1.8%), but nonetheless falls short of the 3.8% annual improvement now required to meet the SDG 7.3 target for 2030.

The NZE Scenario charts a path to meeting the objectives of SDG 7, even exceeding the energy intensity objectives set out in target 7.3. In this scenario, the global rate of energy intensity improvement accelerates to more than 4.1% in average to 2030. This rate is higher than the SDG 7.3 goal but is necessary if the world is to follow the narrow, but plausible pathway in the NZE Scenario. Much of the potential for energy intensity improvement in this scenario comes from the switch to electric vehicles for transport, improvements in efficiency across industrial sectors and stringent building energy codes for both new and existing buildings, including the electrification of space heating in buildings.