The number of people worldwide lacking access to electricity in 2023 declined to 750 million people, about 10 million less than in 2022, which was the first year in decades showing a global reversal in progress. The 2023 progress was mainly driven by renewed grid expansions and the adoption of SHS in sub-Saharan Africa, where 80% of people without access to electricity live today. Additionally, countries in developing Asia also saw significant progress, for instance Bangladesh, which achieved universal access last year. Recent IEA data and analysis suggest that this progress will continue in 2024, even if still slower than pre-pandemic levels.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the Covid-19 pandemic erased several years of slow but steady progress. The number of people without access to electricity peaked in 2022, as a result of the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. In that year, population growth outpaced efforts to extend access due to the compounded effects of these crises. The number of people without electricity in 2023 stabilised at around 600 million, well above the number before the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to record sales of SHS in major markets, notably Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria.

Progress is stronger in Asia, where the rollout of new connection solutions was supported by more concerted policies and easier access to financing. As of 2022, two of the largest countries in developing Asia, India and Indonesia, reached universal electricity access. This has dramatically slowed down progress in the rest of the region since the pandemic as other countries have not managed to achieve significant progress. In 2023 there has been more improvement, particularly thanks to Bangladesh, and progress in Cambodia and the Philippines. Almost 1 billion people have gained access to electricity in developing Asia since 2010, with 97% of the region having access in 2023 compared with 79% in 2010. Most of the progress occurred in India, Indonesia and Bangladesh. All achieved near universal access in recent years, thanks to ambitious government policies such as the Indian Saubhagya scheme. 

To reach SDG 7.1.1, around 135 million new connections are needed each year from 2024. With the pace seen in recent years this target remains far from being achieved.

According to our latest Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) projections, 645 million are projected to remain without access in 2030, of which 85% or about 545 million people are in sub-Saharan Africa. Considerable efforts are needed in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, which together represent more than half of the global population without access to electricity in 2030. Today, fewer than a fifth of African countries have targets to reach universal electricity access by 2030. On the other hand, many developing countries in Asia are nearly on track to achieve universal access by 2030, leaving only 2% of the population without access in 2030 in the STEPS. However, further efforts are needed in countries such as Afghanistan, Mongolia, and Pakistan.

Ensuring universal access to electricity by 2030 will require an investment of USD 50 million each year on average from now. This includes costs for power generation, electricity networks, and decentralised solutions. However, current investments are well below this level. Access to finance is often challenging for the least developed countries where the access gap is largest. International support is essential, with concessional finance playing a key role in lowering the perceived risk for private investors. However, national governments must also implement robust electrification plans and allocate capital to access projects accordingly.

To reach universal access by 2030 in the NZE Scenario, more than half of the population gaining access do so at first with off-grid solutions such as mini-grids and stand-alone systems, representing 30% and 25% respectively. Almost 90% of new connections are based on renewables in the scenario.

Achieving universal access under the NZE Scenario calls decision makers to accelerate access-related development plans and programs that address affordability issues, support decentralised solutions and productive uses of energy, and implement national electrification plans, while integrating them in broader energy and developing plans.