Gas Market Report, Q3 2024

Natural gas markets moved to more pronounced growth in the first half of 2024, with initial estimates indicating that global gas demand increased at a rate well above its historical average during this period. Demand growth is primarily supported by higher gas use in industry and is increasingly concentrated in Asia, where both China and India returned to double-digit growth rates in the first half of 2024.

Despite this strong growth, the outlook for gas demand remains fragile. Global LNG production underperformed in the second quarter of 2024, while geopolitical tensions are fuelling price volatility. Natural gas prices increased across all key markets in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting tighter market fundamentals. For the full year of 2024, natural gas demand is forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2024, primarily driven by fast-growing Asian markets.

Geopolitical instability represents the greatest risk to the short-term outlook. LNG trade has practically halted across the Red Sea since the start of the year, while Russia is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine, including underground gas storage facilities. In this context, security of supply for natural gas remains a key aspect of energy policy making and the risks related to our outlook highlight the need to strengthen international co-operation, including in assessing and implementing flexibility options along gas and LNG value chains.   

This edition of the quarterly Gas Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a thorough review of market developments over the first half of 2024 and a short-term outlook for the remainder of 2024. As part of the IEA’s Low-Emissions Gases Work Programme, the report includes a section dedicated to the medium-term outlook for biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane.