Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2010

About this report

For the first time, the IEA has merged its medium-term market reports for oil and gas, thereby giving readers a broader perspective on global trends. Critical questions persist for both markets, including whether economic and energy demand outlooks are clearer than in mid-2009. Do oil markets show a genuine structural shift in demand patterns? Will they sustain a nascent recovery in upstream spending evident in 2010? And how long will current levels of OPEC spare capacity persist? For the gas market, will demand recover from its collapse in 2009? How long will the gas glut last? Will unconventional gas revolutionise gas markets outside North America? And how is consumption changing in the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Middle East? Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2010 presents a comprehensive outlook for oil and gas market fundamentals over the next three to five years. The oil market analysis develops two demand scenarios that reflect uncertainties about the path of economic recovery after the global slow-down in 2008/09. Market balances are generated from detailed analysis of upstream investment projects, oil field decline rates, product-by-product demand trends, and refinery investment and operations. The gas market analysis assesses prices, unconventional gas, future demand developments and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets, as well as investment across the gas value chain. With a focus on key producers (including Russia, the Caspian region and the Middle East) and rising LNG exporters (such as Australia), it examines implications for global gas markets.