World oil markets are rebalancing after the Covid-19 crisis spurred an unprecedented collapse in demand in 2020, but they may never return to “normal”. Oil 2021, the IEA’s latest medium-term outlook, explains why.
Rapid changes in behaviour from the pandemic and a stronger drive by governments towards a low-carbon future have caused a dramatic downward shift in expectations for oil demand over the next six years. This is forcing hard decisions on oil-producing countries and companies, which are reluctant to leave resources untapped or to install new capacity that would only sit idle. Could oil demand peak sooner than expected? Or is the world heading into a supply crunch? What will the implications be for the refining industry and trade flows?
Oil 2021 tackles these questions by analysing oil market data, trends in investment and technology, and government policies. The report provides a comprehensive outlook for global supply and demand to 2026 and explores the vast challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead.