Global Energy Transitions Stocktake
Tracking progress toward the Paris Agreement
This year marks the finalisation of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, which assesses the world’s collective progress against its climate goals. In support of that important effort, the IEA is bringing together all of its latest data and analysis on clean energy transitions in one place, making it freely accessible to citizens, governments, and industry.
Reaching net zero emissions requires a complete transformation of how we power our daily lives and the global economy. The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 Scenario lays out a narrow but achievable pathway to net zero emissions in the energy sector by mid-century – a trajectory consistent with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5oC. Following this pathway represents the world’s best chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change, and requires accelerating the shift to non-emitting sources of energy, such as wind and solar; increasing energy efficiency; electrifying transport, industry and buildings; expanding the use of clean hydrogen and other low-emission fuels; and investing in emissions abating technologies, including negative emission technologies.
The IEA’s Global Energy Transitions Stocktake pulls together the latest data and analysis on the global clean energy transition, including energy sector greenhouse gas emissions, technology developments, energy sector financing, energy access and energy employment. Taken together, these indicators allow us to track global progress of the energy transition and provide an accurate and objective picture of where we are now, and the trajectories we are on.
This page, which will be regularly updated in the lead up to the UN's COP28 climate change conference, includes a calendar of all major report launches throughout the year, making it easy to follow the latest updates and find links to IEA’s publications and in-depth analysis. This series culminates in the release of a new Special Report on Climate which will explore viable pathways in the energy sector to 1.5oC.
Upcoming events and releases
|
Month |
Release |
|---|---|
|
June |
July |
Clean Energy Technology Guide (with Clean Energy Demonstrations Project Database) |
|
September |
|
|
October |
|
Global tracking indicators
Government spending for clean energy investment support and crisis-related short-term consumer energy affordability measures, Q2 2023
OpenGovernments have allocated USD 1.34 trillion to clean energy since the pandemic
Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, governments have enacted USD 1 343 billion in clean energy investment support. This amount is unprecedented, but also heavily imbalanced as advanced economies account for nearly 95% of it.
In addition, policymakers have spent a further USD 900 billion in efforts to protect households and businesses from rising energy bills since autumn 2021. Only about 25% of these short-term affordability measures were targeted toward households most in need of support or businesses most exposed to the effects of high energy prices. Without better targeting, new affordability measures will further contribute to rising levels of government debt.
In addition, policymakers have spent a further USD 900 billion in efforts to protect households and businesses from rising energy bills since autumn 2021. Only about 25% of these short-term affordability measures were targeted toward households most in need of support or businesses most exposed to the effects of high energy prices. Without better targeting, new affordability measures will further contribute to rising levels of government debt.
Global energy investment in clean energy and in fossil fuels, 2015-2023
OpenClean energy investment reaches record high in 2022
The recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and the response to the global energy crisis have provided a major boost to global clean energy investment, which rose to more than USD 1.7 trillion in 2022. For every USD 1 spent on fossil fuels, USD 1.7 is now spent on clean energy. Five years ago this ratio was 1:1. Clean energy investment is set to grow further in 2023, with growth driven largely by solar PV and EVs.
Renewable electricity net annual capacity additions, 2017-2022
OpenRenewable capacity additions grew by 13% in 2022
Renewable energy capacity additions rose by almost 13% to nearly 340 GW in 2022. However, solar PV was the only technology that broke a deployment record last year, with net additions of nearly 220 GW – a 35% increase from 2021. Annual wind capacity additions fell 21% from 2021 to 2022, declining for the second year in a row.
Global additions of hydropower grew, owing to several large projects in Asia, while bioenergy production for power generation also declined due to the phaseout of subsidies in China, the world’s largest market. For geothermal and CSP technologies, global annual market growth remained small but stable.
Global additions of hydropower grew, owing to several large projects in Asia, while bioenergy production for power generation also declined due to the phaseout of subsidies in China, the world’s largest market. For geothermal and CSP technologies, global annual market growth remained small but stable.
Global public energy RD&D budget, 2015-2022
OpenPublic investment in energy-based research and development grew in 2022
Public RD&D spending reaches new high in 2022, led by China. Public RD&D expenditures play a significant role in fostering new clean energy technologies and bringing them to market. Globally, public spending on energy R&D rose by 10% in in 2022, to nearly USD 44 billion, with 80% devoted to clean energy topics. However, estimated growth in China masks sluggishness elsewhere, maintaining China’s status as the largest public spender on energy R&D. While OECD countries saw their total government spending on energy RD&D stagnate in 2022, new policies, notably the United States Inflation Reduction Act, promise increases in the coming years.
Announced project throughput and deployment for key clean energy technologies in the Net Zero Scenario, 2030
OpenClean energy supply chains expand substantially in 2022
Clean energy technology manufacturing is expanding rapidly, with new capacity additions posting strong year-on-year growth in 2022 for batteries (72%), solar PV (39%), electrolysers (26%) and heat pumps (13%). Wind manufacturing capacity grew much more modestly at around 2%. The announced pipeline of new manufacturing facilities is also growing. If all were to come to fruition, solar PV and battery manufacturing capacity could meet deployment levels needed in 2030 to meet the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario. Conversely, existing capacity plus announced projects for wind, electrolysers, and heat pumps remain insufficient. However, all clean energy supply chains remain highly geographically concentrated: with China alone accounting for 40-80% market share across these 5 technologies.
Read the report: The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing
Global electric car stock, 2010-2022
OpenEVs now close to 15% of global car market
Electric car sales exceeded 10 million in 2022, and accounted for close to 15% of the global car market, up from less than 5% just two years earlier. China continues to dominate the market, representing around 60% of all electric cars sold globally, followed by Europe then the United States.
A growing number of EV policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and new EU CO2 standards for cars and vans are driving the outlook for EV sales up, EV costs down, and and are leading to substantially less oil demand by the end of this decade. Around 500 models of electric cars were available to consumers in 2022, and supply chains continue to grow, especially for EV battery production, which is now responsible for 60% of global lithium demand, 30% of cobalt and 10% of nickel.
A growing number of EV policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and new EU CO2 standards for cars and vans are driving the outlook for EV sales up, EV costs down, and and are leading to substantially less oil demand by the end of this decade. Around 500 models of electric cars were available to consumers in 2022, and supply chains continue to grow, especially for EV battery production, which is now responsible for 60% of global lithium demand, 30% of cobalt and 10% of nickel.
Annual growth in sales of heat pumps in buildings worldwide and in selected markets, 2021 and 2022
OpenGlobal heat pump sales continue double-digit growth
Global sales of heat pumps grew by 11% in 2022, according to the latest IEA analysis, marking a second year of double-digit growth for the central technology in the world’s transition to secure and sustainable heating. Increased policy support and incentives for heat pumps in light of high natural gas prices and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were key drivers behind the strong uptake. In Europe, heat pumps enjoyed a record year, with sales growing by nearly 40%. In particular, sales of air-to-water models, which are compatible with typical radiators and underfloor heating systems, jumped by almost 50% in Europe. In the United States, heat pump purchases exceeded those of gas furnaces, while in China, the world’s largest heat pump market, sales remained stable.
Global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes, 1900-2022
OpenCO2 Emissions in 2022: Growth in emissions lower than feared
Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 0.9% or 321 Mt in 2022, reaching a new high of over 36.8 Gt. Following two years of exceptional oscillations in energy use and emissions, caused in part by the Covid-19 pandemic, last year’s growth was much slower than 2021’s rebound of more than 6%. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt.
In a year marked by energy price shocks, rising inflation, and disruptions to traditional fuel trade flows, global growth in emissions was lower than feared, despite gas-to-coal switching in many countries. Increased deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles, and heat pumps helped prevent an additional 550 Mt in CO2 emissions.
In a year marked by energy price shocks, rising inflation, and disruptions to traditional fuel trade flows, global growth in emissions was lower than feared, despite gas-to-coal switching in many countries. Increased deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles, and heat pumps helped prevent an additional 550 Mt in CO2 emissions.
Energy-related and process CO2 emissions by scenario, 2010-2050
OpenMeeting all net zero pledges on time and in full would result in 1.7 °C of temperature rise in 2100
Energy‐related and industrial CO2 emissions rebounded by 1.9 Gt in 2021 – the largest ever annual rise in emissions – with global CO2 emissions in 2021 totalling 36.6 Gt. IEA scenarios illustrate the difference in CO2 emissions trajectory and temperature rise compared to the baseline prior to the Paris Agreement. Both the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) show that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and new net zero emission pledges would bring significant emission reductions and curb the temperature rise compared to the pre-Paris baseline.
However, neither would be enough to keep the temperature rise to “well below 2 °C" nor reflect efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, CO2 emissions drop to zero in 2050 with temperature rise peaking below 1.6 °C around 2040, before falling to around 1.4 °C in 2100.
However, neither would be enough to keep the temperature rise to “well below 2 °C" nor reflect efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, CO2 emissions drop to zero in 2050 with temperature rise peaking below 1.6 °C around 2040, before falling to around 1.4 °C in 2100.
Global methane emissions from the energy sector, 2000-2022
OpenMethane emissions remained stubbornly high in 2022
Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Cutting methane emissions is one of the most effective near-term ways to limit global warming and improve air quality. Today, the energy sector accounts for around 40% of total methane emissions attributable to human activity, second only to agriculture. In 2022, the global energy industry released nearly 135 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere, only slightly below the record highs seen in 2019. However, emissions from very large leaks detected by satellite fell by almost 10% in 2022 from what was detected in 2021, and preliminary estimates indicate that there was also a reduction in natural gas flaring.
Number of people without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa and the world, 2012-2022
OpenFor the first time in decades, the number of people without access to electricity is set to increase in 2022
The pandemic and the global energy crisis that followed are undermining efforts to ensure universal access to secure affordable energy, especially in the developing world.
According to the latest IEA estimates, the number of people around the world who live without electricity is set to rise by nearly 20 million in 2022, reaching nearly 775 million, the first global increase since the IEA began tracking the numbers 20 years ago. The rise is mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people without access is nearly back to its 2013 peak, erasing years of improvements.
According to the latest IEA estimates, the number of people around the world who live without electricity is set to rise by nearly 20 million in 2022, reaching nearly 775 million, the first global increase since the IEA began tracking the numbers 20 years ago. The rise is mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people without access is nearly back to its 2013 peak, erasing years of improvements.
The clean energy economy is gaining ground, but greater efforts are needed
Recent technology developments are driving progress on clean energies. Among the 55 key clean energy sectors and technologies tracked in the IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, only electric vehicles and lightning were fully on track in 2021 for their 2030 milestones laid out in the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 Scenario. But another 30 other areas are seeing positive trends, even if they require more effort to get on track.
Global electrolyser capacity by size, 2018-2021
OpenThe pipeline of low-emission hydrogen projects is growing
Hydrogen demand reached 94 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021, recovering to above pre-pandemic levels (91 Mt in 2019), and containing energy equal to about 2.5% of global final energy consumption. Most of the increase was met by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels, meaning there was no benefit for mitigating climate change. Production of low-emission hydrogen was less than 1 Mt in 2021, practically all of it from using fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). However, the pipeline of projects for producing low-emission hydrogen is growing at an impressive speed. Completion of all those projects could result in the world’s capacity to produce hydrogen via electrolysers rising to up to 290 gigawatts in 2030 from just 0.5 gigawatts in 2021.
Operational and planned carbon capture capacity by status, 2022-2030
OpenCCUS set to expand rapidly if all planned projects come online
The IEA's Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) database tracks all CO2 capture, transport, storage, and utilisation projects that have been commissioned since the 1970s and includes projects under construction and planned. If all projects in the pipeline come to fruition, global CO2 capture capacity would reach over 300 million tonnes per year by 2030.
Key indicators related to energy investment, 2021
OpenOnly 20% of clean energy investment occurs in emerging and developing economies
Emerging and developing economies excluding China accounted for two-thirds of the world’s population in 2021, but only one-third of total energy investment and just 20% of global investment in clean energy technologies. Annual clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies needs to increase by more than seven times to over USD 1 trillion by 2030 to put the world on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. A new special report, developed in partnership with IFC, aims to address the challenge of mobilising more investment for clean energy in emerging and developing markets. The report builds on previous work from the IEA, and will draw upon nearly 50 real-world case studies.
International collaboration needs to accelerate on key sectors
At COP26 in Glasgow, more than two-thirds of the global economy signed onto the Breakthrough Agenda, with endorsement from 45 world leaders, including those of the G7, China and India. It is designed to strengthen international collaboration on decarbonising key sectors. This Breakthrough Agenda Report, led by the IEA in collaboration with IRENA and the UN Climate Change High-Level Action Champions, provides recommendations to prioritise and improve such collaboration between governments, business and civil society in areas including common standards, technology R&D, reaching a level playing field for trade, and improving technical and financial assistance.
Global CO2 emissions changes by technology maturity category in the Net Zero Scenario, 2050 compared to 2030
OpenHalf the emission reductions needed to reach net zero come from technologies not yet on the market
The IEA Clean Energy Technology Guide tracks progress on more than 500 individual technologies needed to achieve net-zero emissions in the energy sector. For each of these technologies, the Guide assesses their level of maturity, compiles a global list of development and deployment plans, and provides cost and performance indicators, including targets for future objectives. The Guide also features the Clean Energy Demonstrations Technology Database, which tracks and provides more information on large-scale demonstrators.
Energy employment in fossil fuel and clean energy sectors, 2019-2022
OpenClean energy employs over 50% of total energy workers
The energy sector employed over 65 million people in 2019, equivalent to around 2% of global employment. Energy sector employment recovered strongly after the Covid-19 pandemic, returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2021 thanks to resilient growth in clean energy and recently introduced incentives. Clean energy employs over 50% of total energy workers, owing to the substantial growth of new projects coming online—a trend seen across most global regions.
Country-level tracking indicators
Moving to sustainable energy systems is a global challenge that involves a multitude of decisions taken at national and local levels. Not every country starts from the same position, and not every country can or will seek the same solutions. That will depend on the structure of its economy, its legacy energy mix, and factors such as climate and geography.
Related analysis
-
Did affordability measures help tame energy price spikes for consumers in major economies?
Commentary — 02 June 2023
-
Government Energy Spending Tracker
June 2023 update
-
World Energy Investment 2023
-
The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing
An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Briefing
-
Global EV Outlook 2023
-
Latin America’s opportunity in critical minerals for the clean energy transition
Commentary — 07 April 2023
-
As their sales continue to rise, SUVs’ global CO2 emissions are nearing 1 billion tonnes
Commentary — 27 February 2023
-
Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Clean Energy Transitions: Time for a New Approach?
A "price gap-plus" approach could bring carbon prices and environmental costs into the equation.