Coal Market Update – July 2023

Coal markets, like those for oil and natural gas, have experienced a turbulent three years as a result of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the first truly global energy crisis. In 2023, coal markets have so far been less volatile, though more turmoil could lie ahead.

This Coal Market Update – which provides the latest analysis of coal demand, production, trade and prices – finds that coal demand and supply reached an all-time high in 2022, confirming previous forecasts. It also provides preliminary estimates for the first half of 2023 and outlooks for full-year 2023 and 2024, based on recent trends and forecasts for economic growth across regions, as well as fuel and forward curves.

Given that coal is the single largest source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and that global coal consumption has more or less plateaued for a decade, the key question is when a structural decline in coal demand will begin. The analyses and data in this Coal Market Update inform those looking to answer this question, which has major implications for efforts to reach international energy and climate goals.