Climate change’s impacts have already become more apparent in Southeast Asia. The region has seen a significant rise in land surface temperatures by 0.8°C since the 1980s, accompanied by more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures have altered precipitation patterns and increased flood risks beyond the world average. In addition, the region is experiencing intensified tropical cyclones, particularly affecting countries like Myanmar, the Philippines and Viet Nam.

Climate impacts are set to worsen in Southeast Asia. Erratic precipitation patterns are projected to increase, with more intense and frequent heavy rainfalls. The temporal concentration of precipitation may lead to higher risks of floods. Projections indicate that mean temperatures are likely to continue to rise, with extreme heat events potentially doubling under low-emissions scenarios and quadrupling under high-emissions scenarios by the end of the century. Projections also suggest that tropical cyclones continue to become more intense, posing risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. Combined with more intense tropical cyclones, accelerated sea level rise could threaten coastal energy assets with an increasing number of storm surges and coastal flooding.

The impacts of these climate hazards are pervasive across the entire energy value chain, from fuel extraction and processing to electricity generation and distribution. Increasing climate risks pose challenges to an energy system already strained by rising electricity demand, heavy reliance on imported fuels and issues of energy affordability. Therefore, climate impacts have implications for the safe, reliable and affordable operation of the region’s energy system. 

High temperatures and heatwaves have critical impacts on the power sector, notably on solar PV, gas-fired power plants and electricity networks. Higher temperatures may lead to less solar power generation by degrading generation efficiency and increasing the electrical resistance, while damaging cells and other materials. Similarly, natural gas-fired power plants can see a decrease in power generation due to a reduced air mass flow and increasing temperature of cooling water. Although the impacts of extreme heat are currently limited, solar PV and natural gas-fired power plants are projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events in the coming decades. Particularly in a high-emissions scenario, nearly 70% of solar PV and over 90% of natural gas-fired power plants would see more than 20 hot days above 35°C thresholds by 2100, presenting a notable increase from the current level.

Electricity grids are also under increasing stress due to increasing extreme heat events. Overhead power lines can heat up, expand and sag while underground power cables could experience short circuits due to stresses on cable and joint insulating materials. Critical components such as transformers, inverters and substations are also at higher risk of failure from overheating. Rapidly increasing electricity demand for cooling also adds strains to the grid.

Heavy rainfalls and flooding disrupt coal and critical mineral mining operations. Coal, nickel and copper mines in flood-prone areas of Southeast Asia have already experienced operational halts and supply chain interruptions due to inundation in mining pits and physical damage. If climate change is not mitigated on time, around 75% of coal mines, 75% of copper mines and 30% of nickel mines in the region could see a more than 10% increase in heavy rainfall in the middle of this century compared with the pre‑industrial period.

The changes in precipitation patterns also require building climate resilience of hydropower. Hydropower, which is a crucial part of the energy mix in countries such as Laos PDR and Viet Nam, is sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns. Increased annual and seasonal variability in precipitation may lead to a decrease in hydropower generation capacity factor, 5% by 2100 compared with 1970‑2010 in a low-emissions scenario or nearly 9% in a high-emissions scenario. Some Mekong River basin countries, which have already experienced electricity supply disruptions due to climate change, are projected to have the largest drop.

The intensification of tropical cyclones is another concern to energy security. Tropical cyclones can directly threaten the physical resilience of energy systems, inflicting damages to assets with severe winds, heavy rainfall, landslides and storm surges with the combination of sea level rise. In Southeast Asia, nearly half of the solar PV and hydropower installed capacities are situated in cyclone-prone areas, far exceeding the global level (15%). Over 40% of wind turbines and over 20% of electricity grids are also exposed to tropical cyclones. Some refineries located in coastal and cyclone-prone areas could face severe coastal floodings or storm surges as sea level rises and tropical cyclones intensify.

Shifting the way energy infrastructure is planned and developed can help mitigate climate impacts, while also supporting energy transition and security. A climate-resilient energy system that can prepare for climate changes (“readiness”), adapt to and withstand the slow-onset changes in climate patterns (“robustness”), continue to operate under the immediate shocks from extreme weather events using alternative sources (“resourcefulness”), and restore the system’s function after climate-driven disruptions (“recovery”) is essential to deliver energy and climate goals.

Actions for climate resilience could start with building a robust climate database, conducting scientific assessments and integrating climate resilience into energy policies. Despite notable progress in recent decades, the inadequate quality of observation data and climate projections in the region remains a major bottleneck for climate resilience, while the energy sector climate resilience is often neglected in climate change adaptation and resilience policies.

Mobilising private sector investment with public financing instruments, supportive policies and insurance is also required to support resilience measures to enhance robustness and resourcefulness. Deployment of energy-efficient technologies and nature-based solutions contribute to coping with both slow-onset and extreme weather events, while addressing fundamental issues with long-term time horizons. Technical and structural improvements of energy infrastructure, diversification of energy sources, and innovative digital solutions can help address immediate impacts from extreme weather events while enabling fast recovery.

Although adverse impacts of climate change are increasing in the region, they can be avoided or minimised by actions for climate resilience. Co‑ordinated efforts from diverse stakeholders, including public and private sectors, regional organisations, and international partners, could lead to a more resilient and secure future for the energy sector in Southeast Asia.