The IEA released the first edition of the Clean Energy Market Monitor in March 2024. This publication series aims to present up-to-date data regarding clean energy trends to inform policy and market analysis. As clean energy becomes more and more integral to the energy system and energy markets, timely understanding of clean energy market trends becomes more important. This November edition of the Clean Energy Market Monitor expands on the indicators presented in the March edition. In addition to data on clean energy technology deployment for the year-to-date, this edition includes analysis of the financial performance of a snapshot of listed clean energy firms, CO₂ emissions in a subset of electricity systems for which the IEA collects near real-time data, and analysis of equipment price trends of selected clean energy technologies.

The data do not support the narrative of slowing clean energy transitions, although some regions and sectors have seen recent wobbles. In the first half of 2024, solar PV additions rose 36%, electric vehicle sales increased 25%, while wind power capacity additions have kept pace with the record deployment seen last year. However, heat pump sales have fallen back by around 10%. Solar PV continues to be a standout performer: additions increased one-third in China in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, while additions in the United States grew by nearly 80%. Several major markets, notably China and the United States, often see a surge in new capacity additions for wind and solar PV towards the end of the calendar year as developers aim to complete projects.

Clean energy transitions show signs of accelerating in emerging market and developing economies outside China, as some advanced economies see setbacks in some sectors. Progress on clean energy transitions remains too concentrated in advanced economies and China, but there are some signs that this is changing. In the first half of 2024, emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, saw a 100% increase in electric vehicle sales, with the share in total sale reaching around 5%, comparable to the level seen in the developed Asia region. India saw a substantial increase in solar PV capacity additions (+90%). However, clean energy technology deployment levels in some advanced economies, notably in Europe, were lower. Heat pump sales in Europe fell almost 50% in the first half of the year, and EV sales only grew 3%.

Ample manufacturing capacity and in some cases weaker-than-expected demand are putting pressure on the financial performance of some companies, while pushing down clean energy equipment prices and providing opportunities for faster transitions. Net profit margins in integrated solar PV manufacturers in China fell from around 13% in the first half of 2023 to around -5% in the first half of 2024, even as equipment prices for solar PV fell to new record lows. However, the picture is not one-sided. China’s battery manufacturers saw profit margins strengthen even as manufacturers outside China struggled.

Overall, clean energy equipment prices have overcome the uptick seen in the post-Covid period, as tangled supply chains, rising interest rates, and high commodity prices put pressure on equipment prices. The IEA’s Clean Energy Technology Equipment Price index is down by 22% compared to the post-pandemic peak.

Electricity sectors continue to decarbonise, but extreme weather has pushed up electricity demand and prevented a sharper decline in electricity sector emissions in 2024. The IEA has released a new tracking product: the Real-Time Electricity Tracker. This tool tracks in close to real-time the CO₂ emissions from the electricity sectors of countries accounting for around half of global electricity generation. In the countries covered by this tracker, cumulative CO₂ emissions were over 1% lower by mid-October than the same period last year. In the United States, total electricity generation emissions from January to October remained broadly stable compared to 2023, as an increased availability of renewables mitigated the demand surge from an extremely hot summer. In India, both electricity demand and emissions are around 5% higher for the year-to-date, compared to 2023. Electricity sectors in the European Union crossed a milestone with renewables accounting for around half of total generation between January and October. Meanwhile, coal and gas generation combined fell to a record low share of 23%. Wind and solar PV accounted for around 30% of total electricity generation in the European Union on a year-to-date basis.