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  • To limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 °C, a key goal of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions from the energy sector need to reach net zero by 2050.

    The energy pledges made at COP28 have kept open a pathway to 1.5 °C – but governments must quickly transform promises into action.

    A new online resource from the IEA, COP28: Tracking the Energy Outcomes, tracks progress against the global targets set in Dubai. Here are some of its findings.

    Photo of planet earth taken from space
  • In 2023, the world’s capacity to generate electricity from renewables increased faster than at any time in the past three decades.

    On such a trajectory, there is a real chance of achieving the COP28 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030.

    However, the world still needs to accelerate renewables deployment to meet this target.

    Global renewable energy capacity and COP28 pathway, 2030

  • Governments agreed at COP28 to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

    According to the IEA’s net zero pathway, annual progress needs to rise from a baseline of 2% per year to an average of more than 4% per year between now and 2030.

    In 2023, global energy efficiency improved by an estimated 1.1%, according to the latest IEA data.

    Improvement in global energy efficiency and COP28 pathway, 2030

  • The COP28 agreement calls for substantial cuts to methane emissions this decade. 

    The production and use of fossil fuels resulted in close to 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, near the record high set in 2019.

    According to IEA analysis, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations need to decline 75% from 2022 levels by 2030 on a path to limit warming to 1.5 °C.

    Global methane emissions from fossil fuels and COP28 pathway, 2030

  • Countries at COP28 agreed to transition away from fossil fuels.

    Due to the rapid growth of clean energy, peaks in demand for oil, natural gas and coal are now visible this decade under today’s policy settings. 

    Yet on a net zero pathway, fossil fuel demand by 2030 needs to decline by more than a quarter from 2022 levels – much faster than currently projected.

    Global fossil fuel demand and COP28 pathway, 2030

  • Governments agreed at COP28 to accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport, including through the rapid deployment of zero- and low-emissions vehicles.

    Demand for electric cars reached a new record in 2023, accounting for nearly one in five new cars sold globally.

    If the rate of growth is sustained, it would be more than enough to align with the IEA’s net zero pathway – though it will be important to ramp up demand beyond a handful of major markets.

    Global electric car sales and COP28 pathway, 2030