Oil 2024

Analysis and forecast to 2030

Two sphere gas storage in petrochemical plant at night

About this report

Energy supply security remains a central pillar of the global policy agenda as international oil trade flows are upended by wide-ranging sanctions on Russia and attacks on tankers transiting the critical Red Sea shipping corridor. At the same time, Asia’s growing structural shortfall in crude and oil products and the ever‑expanding supply surplus in the Atlantic Basin are creating new trade routes in the global oil market. This eastward shift to non-OECD Asia, especially China and India, is coinciding with a multitude of new challenges driving oil market activity as the energy transition gathers pace. Increased use of EVs, emerging clean energy technologies and more expansive efficiency policies are combining to chart a much slower growth trajectory for oil demand, plateauing towards the end of our 2023-2030 forecast period. Oil 2024, the IEA’s medium-term outlook, explores these critical developments and their impact on the global oil market.

Oil 2024 looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2030. The report provides detailed analysis and forecasts of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions. It also outlines projected supply from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world. Our findings provide compelling insights on spare production capacity, product supply and trade flows, as well as the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in this era of petrochemical-driven demand growth.