2019年天然气报告

Analysis and forecasts to 2024

Natural gas pipeline

关于本报告

在2018年,全球天然气需求增长了4.6%,达到了2010年起最快的增速。在世界的不同地区,天然气面临不同的情景:在北美,天然气的供应廉价、充足;在中国,天然气正在帮助解决大气污染问题;在亚洲新兴国家,天然气支撑工业发展;在欧洲,天然气正在面对可再生能源的挑战;在非洲和拉美,天然气是新兴的燃料来源。无论如何,天然气在全球的能源转型进程中都处于中心地位——通过替代煤炭和石油在发电、供暖和工业中的使用,天然气得以帮助各国减轻大气污染和碳排放。我们关注到,一个建立在贸易基础上的、更加融合的全球天然气市场正在形成。但是,天然气仍然面临着许多挑战:如何提高其在新兴经济体市场的价格竞争力?如何保证天然气供应安全?如何降低其负面的环境影响,特别是如何降低其导致的甲烷排放?本报告将会帮助利益关切方们理解当下和未来的发展趋势。

After another record year, global demand for natural gas is set to keep growing over the next five years, driven by strong consumption in fast-growing Asian economies and supported by the continued development of the international gas trade.

Gas 2019 explores changes underway for gas supply and demand, and other trends that are set to determine the evolution of the market over the next five years.

Key findings

Growing demand for natural gas

Demand for natural gas demand jumped by 4.6% in 2018, accounting for nearly half of overall demand growth. The United States led growth last year, with the switch from coal-to-gas responsible for nearly half of the increase. Weather also had a major impact on US gas demand, with a colder than average winter and hotter than average summer driving up demand in buildings and for power generation. Gas demand in China increased by almost 18%, as the country accelerated efforts to reduce local air pollution.

Average annual change in global energy demand, 2010-2018

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Gas demand in the coming five years is set to be driven by Asia Pacific, forecast to account for almost 60% of the total consumption increase to 2024. China will be the main driver for gas demand growth, though slower than in the recent past as economic growth slows, but still accounting for about 40% of total gas demand increase to 2024.

In the case of China, coal to gas switching and residential uses play a major role in growing demand, whereas power generation is to be the main driver in the Middle East. However it is the industrial sector that is expected to account for almost half of the increase in natural gas consumption globally, covering both energy for processes and feedstock for chemicals.

World natural gas consumption growth for selected countries and regions, 2018-2024

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The United States leads production growth

The United States and China are the two largest individual contributors to supply growth to 2024, accounting together for over 50% of total production increase. However, production increases mainly to meet domestic market needs in many regions, and in some cases such as China or South Asia, cannot keep pace with the strong demand growth rate.

The development of exports is therefore further concentrated, with the United States, Australia and Russia accounting together for the vast majority of gas exports growth to 2024.

Contributors to natural gas production and export growth, 2018-2024

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Changes in LNG markets

Looking at LNG specifically, the market is set to undergo profound changes over the next five years. China and India emerge as major LNG buyers along with increasing imports to Europe. On the supply side, the emergence of a trio of leading exporters results in Australia overpassing Qatar in 2022, and being overpassed by the United States by 2024.

LNG exports for a selection of exporters, 2014-2024

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LNG imports for a selection of importers, 2014-2024

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European supply security

While European gas consumption is set to remain almost flat in the coming years, domestic production is set to fall at an average rate of 3.5% per year, primarily driven by the Groningen phase-out in the Netherlands and declining production in the North Sea.

This structural decline in domestic production, combined with the expiry of several long term pipeline contracts, opens opportunities for new sources of supply, including LNG.

Domestic production and contracted pipeline vs import needs, Europe, 2014-2024

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A global price convergence?

Prices of gas markets in major regions are converging. Differences in regional prices have sharply decreased since the final quarter of 2018 (especially between Asia and Europe) thanks to well-supplied markets. But the Asian spot market still faces a higher degree of price volatility because of stronger seasonal patterns.

The expansion of the LNG trade is likely to encourage greater price convergence, while the debottlenecking of pipeline capacity in the Permian Basin is likely to keep low US gas prices in the future? However, in the absence of further investment in LNG capacity, the prospect of a tighter market would also imply a return to higher regional price differentials.

Evolution of natural gas spot market prices, 2014-2019

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