Copper

Outlook for key energy transition minerals

This report is part of Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024

About this report

This report provides an outlook for demand and supply for key energy transition minerals including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements. Demand projections encompass both clean energy applications and other uses, focusing on the three IEA Scenarios – the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario. Supply projections are based on a detailed review of all announced projects. They show how today's geographical concentration evolves over time, for both mining and refining and how expected supply compares with primary supply requirements in climate-driven scenarios. The outlook is complemented by structured “clean energy transitions risk assessments” across four major dimensions – supply risks, geopolitical risks, ability to respond to supply disruptions, and exposure to ESG and climate risks, which were designed to help policymakers identify potential areas of weakness for each material.

Cu

Copper

Top three producers 2030

Top three refining/mining countries of copper

Demand outlook

demand outlook copper

Mining requirements

supply balance copper
Milestones (APS) 2021 2023 2030 2040
Cleantech demand (kt) 5 380 6 311 12 001 16 343
Other uses (kt) 19 548 19 543 19 127 20 036
Total demand (kt) 24 928 25 855 31 128 36 379
Secondary supply and reuse (kt) 4 123 4 445 5 879 10 006
Primary supply requirements (kt) 20 805 21 409 25 249 25 373
Share of top three mining countries 46% 47% 48% 54%
Share of top three refining countries 57% 59% 59% 59%

Clean energy transition risk assessment

Low
Med
High

Supply risk

31%

shortfall in project pipeline vs. 2035 APS mining requirements

Geopolitical risk

Relatively diversified

supply sources

Barriers to responding to supply disruption

Mature
markets

with sizeable volumes of secondary supply

ESG and climate risk exposure

52%

of mines located in high water stress areas