Countries have a major opportunity to turn methane pledges into action

Nearly 160 countries have now joined the Global Methane Pledge, committing to collectively reduce methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. However, most countries have yet to develop detailed policies and regulations to achieve these reductions.

The next round of updates to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement presents a major opportunity for countries to indicate how they will move from promises to action. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has identified more than 60 countries that could collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an additional 1.2 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO₂-eq) by 2030 by implementing methane pledges in their NDC updates, which are due by February 2025.1 This would be broadly equivalent to eliminating all emissions from international aviation and shipping.

The IEA and COP29 President Azerbaijan recently co-hosted a major event aimed at implementing growing commitments to cut methane emissions from fossil fuels, one of the quickest and most cost-effective ways to tackle climate change. Following the event, the IEA and COP29 Presidency are convening a series of regional workshops with stakeholders for further technical discussions on effective strategies. This commentary explores why incorporating methane into upcoming NDCs is an important pillar for action.

Fossil fuel supply and use resulted in nearly 120 million tonnes (Mt) of methane emissions in 2023, over one‑third of total methane emissions from human activities. According to IEA analysis, cutting these emissions by 75% by 2030 is vital to limit warming to 1.5 °C, as called for by the Paris Agreement.

If all existing pledges on methane – such as the Global Methane Pledge and the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter, which has been signed by more than 50 companies – were to be implemented in full and on time, methane emissions from fossil fuels would decline by around 50% between 2023 and 2030. But as of today, the detailed implementation plans that are in place – including in countries’ NDCs – would cut emissions from fossil fuel operations by only around 20% by 2030. 

Of the 168 active NDCs in place today, methane is listed in the scope of all but ten. However, only around 30 NDCs mention specific measures to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuel operations, and only nine include quantitative targets for these reductions. (Some countries have established methane emissions reduction targets and outlined sectoral mitigation measures in national action plans that are not included in their NDCs, including in Viet Nam, Norway and the United Kingdom.)

Current NDCs and methane pledges mainly cover the period to 2030. The next round of NDCs will extend this time horizon to 2035. They offer an opportunity both to cement existing pledges within domestic policies and to raise overall ambition on methane by setting bold targets for the decade to come.

We have carried out a detailed country-by-country and sector‑by‑sector analysis of every country’s current Nationally Determined Contribution and their methane pledges. We find that for more than 60 Global Methane Pledge signatories, achieving a 30% reduction in domestic methane emissions would lead to a much greater decline in emissions than is currently accounted for in their NDCs.

Under today’s NDCs, economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions in these 60 countries would rise in aggregate by just over 10% between 2020 and 2030. If they were to implement a 30% cut in domestic methane emissions, their greenhouse gas emissions would instead fall in aggregate by 10% during this period. In other words, implementing the Global Methane Pledge domestically would result in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 that are about 1.2 Gt of CO₂-eq lower than current NDCs imply. This highlights the large scope for countries to back up their existing commitments in the next NDCs, while still continuing to consider how they can aim higher.

There are many ways to incorporate clear and actionable methane mitigation measures in the next round of NDCs, including to:

Boost measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) of methane emissions.  Enhanced MMRV can uncover high emitting sources and make it possible to demonstrate progress against reduction targets. For example, Petronas, the national oil company of Malaysia, is working with international partners to achieve measurement-based, Level 5 reporting under the UN Environment Programme’s OGMP 2.0 framework for the oil and gas industry. Measured data is also important to underpin robust national methane inventories.

Introduce tried-and-tested policies. Many methane reduction policies and regulations can be introduced even before a baseline level of emissions is established. These include tried-and-tested policies such as leak detection and repair, equipment mandates, and limits to non-emergency flaring and venting. Nigeria and Colombia have both recently established technical guidelines in these areas.

Detect and respond to super emitters. Large leaks can be detected by optical gas imaging cameras, satellites and fly-over campaigns using drones or aircraft. The United States issued a final rule this year that would require companies to respond to emissions events after they are notified of them. Other countries, including Argentina, Iraq and Turkmenistan, have designated focal points to receive notifications under the International Methane Emissions Observatory’s Methane Alert and Response System.

Establish sectoral reduction measures. Separate measures on reducing methane from each sector can send signals to help companies and consumers anticipate requirements and plan accordingly. Canada’s Methane Strategy outlined individual emissions reduction measures for its oil and gas, agriculture and waste sectors. This set the stage for subsequent regulatory action aimed at achieving a 75% emissions reduction from the oil and gas sector by 2030.

This work was supported by the Clean Energy Transitions Programme, the IEA’s flagship initiative to transform the world’s energy system to achieve a secure and sustainable future for all.