Rare earth elements
Outlook for key energy transition minerals
This report is part of Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024
About this report
This report provides an outlook for demand and supply for key energy transition minerals including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements. Demand projections encompass both clean energy applications and other uses, focusing on the three IEA Scenarios – the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario. Supply projections are based on a detailed review of all announced projects. They show how today's geographical concentration evolves over time, for both mining and refining and how expected supply compares with primary supply requirements in climate-driven scenarios. The outlook is complemented by structured “clean energy transitions risk assessments” across four major dimensions – supply risks, geopolitical risks, ability to respond to supply disruptions, and exposure to ESG and climate risks, which were designed to help policymakers identify potential areas of weakness for each material.
Nd Pr Dy Tb
Rare earth elements
Top three producers 2030
Demand outlook
Mining requirements
| Milestones (APS) | 2021 | 2023 | 2030 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleantech demand (kt) | 11 | 16 | 46 | 64 |
| Other uses (kt) | 67 | 76 | 87 | 105 |
| Total demand (kt) | 78 | 93 | 134 | 169 |
| Secondary supply and reuse (kt) | 22 | 25 | 36 | 48 |
| Primary supply requirements (kt) | 57 | 67 | 98 | 121 |
| Share of top three mining countries | 81% | 85% | 81% | 81% |
| Share of top three refining countries | 98% | 98% | 92% | 93% |
Clean energy transition risk assessment
Supply risk
Highprice volatility than other minerals
Geopolitical risk
77%of refining by one single country in 2030
Ability to respond to supply disruptions
Lowtransparency of pricing schemes
ESG and climate risk exposure
607 gCO2/kWhAmong the highest average grid carbon intensity for refining